The Philosophers' Cocoon

Recently, I’ve been contemplating a question that one of our readers asked a several weeks ago. The core of the question was this: at what point after beginning your job search does it become unrealistic to expect to land a tenure-track job? Marcus cited some data on this and some caveats with interpreting that data. (In a nutshell, your chances of getting a tenure-track job appear to drop off significantly after your second year on the market, but it’s hard to determine how much is attributable to lots of people quitting the job market after 2-3 unsuccessful years.) He also noted the importance of keeping one’s trajectory in mind.

I want to add a bit on this subject because it is a question I have considered often in the last few years. The moment when the question was most prominent in my mind was in April 2019. At that particular moment, I had submitted more than 100 job applications and gotten many interviews, but none of them had turned into an offer. So the immediate question was “What should I do if there’s no academic job waiting in the fall?” But there was also a further question: “Should I try again in the fall, or should I move on?” Now readers familiar with my posts over the years know that this bleak situation had a strangely happy ending. But that was far from guaranteed, and when I’m back on the market in the upcoming fall, there’s no certainty that a fortuitous outcome awaits. So I have already considered how much longer I’m willing to run the job market gauntlet. But I’ll admit that I’ve not developed a complete answer to that question yet.

One of the main complications is that my prior two job searches give evidence of an upward trajectory. During my first job search (2016-2017), I ultimately landed a postdoc but had only a few interviews prior to that point. During my second job search (2018-2019), I ultimately landed another postdoc, but I had more than 3 times as many interviews overall (including many for tenure-track positions) and actually had 3 job offers in hand at the end of May. Theoretically, since I have further improved my professional credentials over the last couple years, I should continue to be competitive on the market. But the job market is likely to still be affected by the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic (likely meaning fewer jobs than usual), so who really knows whether that will happen? If things don’t go well, it might be worth taking another shot on the market on the basis of my past performance.

Another factor in my own case is my financial situation. I am debt-free and have saved a substantial amount of money during the postdoctoral positions. (My salary is not extraordinary but it’s almost triple what I was usually making as a graduate student.) This means that being in between jobs for a while – for instance, if I need to transition into non-academic employment – would not pose a huge problem. Thus, I don’t need to pursue and accept any academic position I could manage just to stay afloat financially.

There are, of course, other factors that impact how long one should stay on the market beyond financial considerations and one’s career trajectory. Moving around the country (or to a different country) can take a heavy toll on a person and their family. At a certain point, people usually want to settle down and stop bouncing around from place to place. There’s also the psychological toll of the job market and the soul-sapping cost of countless rejection notices and awkward interviews. So how does someone put all this information together and answer the original question? When is it appropriate to stop searching for an academic job?

As is common with issues of this complexity, the answer will depend a great deal on the context, but we can still identify some of the critical questions that would need to be answered to make a decision here. Here's a quick summary of what some of those would be:

1. Are you willing to endure the psychological toll of another job market run?
2. Are you in a financial situation that makes it viable to make another job market run?
3. Are you willing to undertake the potential opportunity costs associated with stringing together additional temporary jobs while seeking a tenure-track appointment?
4. Are you willing to relocate to continue the pursuit of a tenure-track job even if you only land a temporary position on this job market run?
5. Would your partner and/or children be willing to continue relocating as you attempt to land stable long-term employment?
6. Do your previous runs on the job market provide evidence that you have a reasonable chance of landing a long-term academic position?
7. If you answer #6 with a “no,” then have you done something recently that might meaningfully increase your marketability?

I suspect that a “no” answer to any of the first 4 questions indicates you ought not to make another run on the job market – or perhaps that you make one final run at a permanent job and then move onto other things if that gambit is unsuccessful. A “no” answer to question #5 would presumably entail that a lengthy discussion needs to occur between you and those substantially impacted by your decision. If you can’t reach an agreement on this matter or otherwise compromise, this could also constitute a sufficient reason not to make another run on the job market.

I want to give a bit more information about the final two questions on this list. Every year, there are graduate students who earn their PhDs but get no interviews in their first run on the job market. If they elect to run the gauntlet again the following year, they will have at least one improved credential – having the PhD in hand instead of being ABD – and perhaps they will have an additional publication or some other notable distinction to add to their CV. But a portion of these graduate students will then go on the job market a second time and get the same result: no interviews. For these graduate students and others with similar results at later career stages, it may be time to begin a transition to another career.

While there is a great deal of randomness in the outcome of the job market, if you’ve submitted 100+ applications in total over two job cycles and gotten 0 interviews, then you will most likely see the same results on your third job market run unless something about your credentials dramatically changes. Realistically, you will need at least a handful of first-round interviews to land a position – the vast majority of candidates who get first round interviews do not get job offers. So if you are struggling to get even one interview, that’s an indication that you’re very unlikely to have the breakthrough you’re looking for. It is still possible, but it is astoundingly improbable. Some people worry about what they might miss out on if they leave the job market too early – what might have happened if they had stuck around for one more year – but I think an equally significant problem is that some of us early-career philosophers stick around for too long. In doing so, we squander years where we could be making more money, working toward promotions, and carving out fulfilling careers in non-academic jobs while we tread water in temporary positions and cram together application materials for another job cycle.

With all this in mind, I still don’t know whether 2021-2022 will be my last run on the academic job market. I may not be able to make that judgment until I know what my circumstances are when it concludes. Overall, I'm satisfied with the jobs I've held and my career trajectory thus far, but now that I'm more than 4 years past my dissertation defense, I recognize that there won’t be too many more cross-country moves and application cycles before I’m ready to steer my life in a different direction.